Wednesday, March 7, 2012

The BIG question - will India be an economic tiger? ...

This is a very relevant post for would be R2Is. Just prepared this post today and to my surprise, saw this article in one of the newspapers. Below are my thoughts which I jotted down today, followed by the link to the article that I read ...


Does this mean you should reconsider your R2I decision? Absolutely not!. These are things which you can't control and R2I decision is the one on which you have control. Hope for the best and make the move if you are inclined to do it. Take the assessment that I provided earlier, if you are confused about which way to go ...
http://r2idiaries.blogspot.in/2011/12/r2i-or-nr2i-not-to-r2i-dilemma-take.html

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My thoughts:

This is a multi-trillion dollar question to which I think anybody has a clear answer but looking at the trends, you can try to make some guesses. Based on what I have seen so far after being out of India for several years, it is a possibility but not a strong one. Why - the mentality for common growth(which moves the country towards common prosperity) and the longer term vision is missing in general, all over the place. The growth that is happening is random and is not structured. For example, you would see a nice flyovers being built but in all the wrong places. It seems like the decision of putting a flyover there came out of not just congestion reason but due to other factors like a contractor's influence, possibly bribes etc. When beautiful lakes, which feed the ground water resources on which cities are heavily dependent, are laying in shambles and getting encroached, you think what is wrong in people's mind - isn't that obvious that you are harming yourself slowly in the process? Definitely people know that but why worry about the long term when you can make some profits in the near term? Country is spending lots of money on infrastructure development but if not done right, that is just tax payers money wasted, with no real development taking place. 

Not to say there aren't any bright spots, Anna Hazare's movement being one example and there are several others. The educated youth want a change but their number is still small. These will be like drops in a bucket - unless there is a strong government that supports such changes, things won't change anytime soon. Private industries are coming (the saying you might have heard - 'everything is available now in India', which is very much true) and changing the scenario but the common theme of rich getting richer and poor staying there or becoming even poorer continues. 

Other thing is about the opening up of doors to private and international players - does that help? Not quite sure. For example, we have started seeing MacDonalds every other corner these days. But the price of a veg burger - Rs. 55. Price of a 6'' sandwich in Subway - Rs. 170. When the techies double think about going to these places, you can imagine about common man. Bottom line - the international players are here to make money and how they would help the country's growth is questionable. Of course, they are creating jobs but that won't have a large impact and there is only so much they can do about infrastructure development.
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Link to the article that talks about a similar study ...
http://www.deccanherald.com/content/232677/india-superpower-unlikely-says-lse.html
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